Understanding the Recent Trends in Consumer Prices
A December 2025 report revealed that the national consumer price index showed an increase of 0.2% compared to November and 1.2% compared to December 2024, marking a slight increase from the previous month’s 1.1% rate. This data aligns with the preliminary estimates released by Istat on the inflation rate. The consumer price index is a crucial indicator of the overall health of an economy, reflecting the average change in prices of a basket of goods and services consumed by households.
Shopping cart +24% in five years
Annual Consumer Price Growth
Over the year as a whole, consumer prices demonstrated an average growth of 1.5%, accelerating compared to the 1% recorded in 2024. This trend is particularly reflective of the dynamics in food and energy products, with notable differences between categories. The increase in consumer prices can be attributed to various factors, including changes in global market conditions, supply chain disruptions, and shifts in consumer behavior.
The Shopping Cart is Growing Faster than Inflation
In the five years between 2021 and 2025, the prices of the so-called shopping cart rose about seven percentage points more than general inflation. The consumer price index recorded a cumulative increase of 17.1%, while the shopping cart went up by 24% and energy goods by 34.1%. On these issues, the Antitrust has launched an investigation to monitor the trend of prices charged to consumers, ensuring that they are fair and competitive.
Looking Ahead to 2026
According to the Istat press office, “the dynamics of consumer prices, after stability in the first two quarters of 2025, showed a slight deceleration in the third and fourth quarters.” In terms of the drag on 2026, for energy goods, a negative effect equal to -2.7% is expected, while for food goods it will be 0.5% and for the shopping cart with food and home and personal care products 0.3%. These values are subject to seasonal fluctuations and may be influenced by various factors, including changes in global demand and supply.
The Inflationary Legacy of 2025
According to Istat, “the legacy in terms of inflation that 2025 leaves for 2026 is nil.” This means that if there were no cyclical changes in the general price index, next year’s inflation rate would be zero. The data highlights how, despite the increase in prices in the last five years, the growth in costs has been concentrated in specific moments, without generating structural effects for 2026. This information provides valuable insights for consumers, businesses, and policymakers, helping them make informed decisions about investments, pricing, and economic planning.
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